Prism, Awakener of Sol at US National Championship 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

37 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Cook

5th • 8-2-0

90%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

5.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rhea Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph McKinley (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Randy Davis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R16 CC

Round 16: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.12
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.07
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.70
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.78
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.96
R15	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.13
R16	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Celeste Beltz

56th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

5.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Alldredge (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Austin Revera (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cullen Roth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jo Burch (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.42
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.80
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.34
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.56

Jamie Foster

82nd • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zack Phillips (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Hebert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Colin Turner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph McKinley (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.17
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.90
R14	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Kevin Murphy

102nd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arivae Chol (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Dunn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Graham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Luke Gilmore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.07
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.20
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.26
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.12
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.29
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.93
R15	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Diego Constantakis

43rd • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Caraher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Salmon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.49
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.33
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.99
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R15	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.98

Logan King

87th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

4.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcus Brown (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Pistel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dawn DeLozier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Mark Bradshaw (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.06
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.05
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.59
R14	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.90
R15	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.04

Ryan Mound

98th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Diego Constantakis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs James Cæruleus Silver (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Joshua Paris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.73
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.28
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.83
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.87
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R15	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

AUSTIN BRILL

103rd • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jo Burch (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Johnny Wedzicha (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Alexis Schlagenhauf (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.02
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.81
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.87
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.91
R15	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Timothy Scroggs

116th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alice Abuhadba (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Jessell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Celeste Beltz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Kamron Van Hulzen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Ethan Davison (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.26
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.78
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R15	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.03

Joseph McKinley

dropped • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kate Wescott (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.59
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.22
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.13
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Pheano Black

dropped • 4-1-0

60%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.44
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.41
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Anthony Perry

dropped • 3-1-1

80%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Steele (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Terrence Bell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Danielle Williams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.36
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Draw	✓	0.66	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Adam Fronsee

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Bader (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Troy Benton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Molho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Cody Williams

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Baker (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Gilmore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Melora Cayce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Igni Elegy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs William Pearlman (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.22

Daniel Brouillet

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marsha Ho (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Evan McGrew (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.12
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

John Kim

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peyton Gage (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Jonathan Gracza

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tristen Farmer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.85

Patrick Weiss

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander McPherson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew W (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua White (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.24
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.50
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexis Cotto

dropped • 2-2-1

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kate Wescott (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcus Brown (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Draw	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.76
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.46
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-

Adam Fischer

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Doug Frauman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew W (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Jennings (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.12
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Dakota Cochran

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Henry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cody Campbell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.27
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.71
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

David Andrews

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zach Huey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sadat Minick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Kaylum Uribes

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hughes Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Michael Lau

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Donovan Mitchell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Santos martinez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.04
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Will Rea

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leon Lu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Elsey (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.22
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jason Watkins

dropped • 1-3-1

40%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alyssa Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Daniel Johnson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Joe Robles

dropped • 1-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kent O’Neal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Nathan Crawford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Draw	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.69

Rogue Theory

dropped • 1-3-1

60%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Nicholas Tagg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Crowley (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Will Rea (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Draw	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.13
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alice Abuhadba

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs JP Coleman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Larsen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Fisher Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Underwood (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.22

Anthony Bonny

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Lam (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Watkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Rothhaar

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tristen Farmer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Cutbirth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Martin (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.55
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Jacob Kindberg

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kaylum Uribes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Crowley (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Chilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Nathan Bearden

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marsha Ho (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Irvin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Cook (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Paul Chen

dropped • 1-4-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Porter Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Steele (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Curtis Roth (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.40

Dayton Blair

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Micah Johnson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chandler To (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Tyler Horspool

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

jaime bessett

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.