Kano, Dracai of Aether at US National Championship 2025
Kano, Dracai of Aether
23 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
57th • 9-0-0
89%
Meta
+3.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
6.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Robert Marsack (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Myles Schortgen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Watson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Austin Chinn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Collin Cromwell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Alexis Schlagenhauf (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59
85:15
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
6.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
26th • 8-1-0
78%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
5.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Berg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joe Santianna (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
85:15
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jose Santos martinez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
85:15
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Gary Gold (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
5.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R13 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
17th • 7-2-0
89%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Griesser (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Randall Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 58:42
80:20
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
85:15
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R14 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R15 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
64th • 6-3-0
89%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Warner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Peyton Gage (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Sones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Trossman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Tho Bui (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
Round 14: Loss vs Noah Zinn (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R15 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
83rd • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.0
Surp
3.0
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kate Wescott (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Anthony DT Zichella (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
85:15
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
15:85
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Celeste Beltz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
85:15
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R14 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
67th • 5-4-0
56%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
4.5
Surp
4.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Harrison Timothy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kyle Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Round 14: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 15: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R15 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
4.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 5: Win vs Alexis Cotto (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Steve Le (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Austin Revera (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew W (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
Round 13: Loss vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Michael Thorington (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony DT Zichella (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Wesley Dong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-1-0
80%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Evans (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luke Gilmore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hughes Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brendan Klempa (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Botchis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Watkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Arocha-Coard (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marcus Brown (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Micah Johnson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 85:15
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Samuel Wells (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
Round 3: Loss vs Theodore Raitzer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joseph Seiwert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joshua White (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jake Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 69:31
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Steven Sweany (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Omeid Vadipour (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kamron Van Hulzen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Randall Suliga (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jesus Montijo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Williams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Bader (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tristan Kilper (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Gary Gold (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Abigail Welday (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Drew Bosco (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Cody Williams (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Franche Tan (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Martin Morford (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Round 5: Win vs Todd Woodworth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Lau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Harrison Pruitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jake Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 70% | Win |
dropped • 0-5-0
80%
Meta
-2.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alexander McPherson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
80%
Meta
-2.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Dabney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ben Cook (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Loss vs Johny Nguyen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alice Abuhadba (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.