Arakni, Marionette at US National Championship 2025
Arakni, Marionette
32 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 8-1-0
56%
Meta
+3.4
Perf
4.0
Surp
7.5
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Patrick McGregor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs William Pistel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Randy Davis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Jude Cornett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
7.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
22nd • 7-2-0
56%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
4.2
Surp
5.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Kim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brady Hayes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brian Kaminsky (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
14th • 6-2-1
22%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
4.9
Surp
6.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Nennich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Round 3: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Aurora Kynkor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36
Round 12: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
Round 14: Win vs Gary Gold (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
30:70
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Randy Davis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
6.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Draw |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
18th • 6-3-0
78%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.8
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
Round 3: Win vs Dawn DeLozier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Russell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Chris Martin (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R15 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Win |
21st • 6-3-0
33%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.6
Surp
7.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Johny Nguyen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Theodore Raitzer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
Round 12: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Round 15: Win vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
7.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R13 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
30th • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.3
Surp
3.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cullen Roth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jeffrey Mazar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Diego Constantakis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Kyle Femmer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
Round 14: Loss vs Patrick McGregor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R15 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
40th • 6-3-0
22%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
4.4
Surp
5.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Grant Strom (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
Round 4: Win vs Jake Bowar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Gary Gold (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
Round 15: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
5.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
70th • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
4.6
Surp
5.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ben Cook (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alyssa Carden (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 12: Win vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Chris Martin (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Zack Phillips (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Round 15: Loss vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Loss |
| R14 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
44th • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
4.5
Surp
4.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Nathan Burns (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Myles Schortgen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Theodore Raitzer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R13 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R15 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
66th • 5-4-0
56%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.1
Surp
3.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sophia Claire (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alex Becker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alyssa Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs nathan lapham (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Benjamin Hebert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R15 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
90th • 3-6-0
67%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
0.4
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chris Rowland (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Victor Lam (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Khoi Doan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Griesser (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R15 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Will Matthews (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
Round 2: Win vs Johny Nguyen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Dabney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jason Feng (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R13 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Chester Stallings (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Stew Fraser (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Noah Geiger (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs gabriel ebady (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Craig Ketchum (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Steele (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Harrison Pruitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nick Webb (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sam Rosenberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs John Milner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Khoi Doan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs george flete (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Robert Marsack (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Grant Juaire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alexander McPherson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cole Pellatt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
Round 4: Loss vs Addison Hudson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs george flete (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick McGregor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Austin Revera (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Simon Aguirre (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tristen Farmer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hasan Abdali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Karl Kraemer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Randy Davis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ethan Davison (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cody Williams (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kenny Griggs (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Albert Irvine (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Igni Elegy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37
Round 4: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Gracza (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joe Robles (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alyssa Carden (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dawn DeLozier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
40%
Meta
-2.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Omeid Vadipour (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Warner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kris Ilich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
60%
Meta
-2.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Troy Benton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Tyson Au (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Flowers (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John Kim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Chilgren (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
0.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew W (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Celeste Beltz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.