Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at US National Championship 2025
Marlynn, Treasure Hunter
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-4-0
88%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
4.2
Surp
2.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Claire Stanfield (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Omeid Vadipour (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
R14
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Theodore Raitzer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Steven Sweany (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 25:75
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jake Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Drew Bosco (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeffrey Mazar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Chilgren (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sean Gray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tristan Kilper (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Berg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zach Huey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ynez Nevarez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chris Martin (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alan Hoang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Albert Irvine (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
0%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
0.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
0% (0/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.