Katsu, the Wanderer
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
118th • 2-7-0
67%
Meta
-2.3
Perf
4.1
Surp
0.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Noah Geiger (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Becker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler Luce (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R13 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R15 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Addison Hudson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alexander McPherson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Nennich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 21:79
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tristan Kilper (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 51:49
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Little (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83
Round 5: Win vs Nathan Bearden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Brook (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Addison Hudson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60
Round 2: Win vs Curtis Roth (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kent O’Neal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jake Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Wesley Chandler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Todd Woodworth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs John Milner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
60%
Meta
-2.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Nolder (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Claire Stanfield (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Donovan Mitchell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.