Katsu, the Wanderer at US National Championship 2025

Katsu, the Wanderer

Katsu, the Wanderer

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

118th • 2-7-0

67%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

4.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Geiger (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54

Arakni, Marionette

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Becker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Luce (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Nuu, Alluring Desire

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.25
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.42
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

Puffin, Hightail

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Addison Hudson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80

Arakni, Marionette

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	15%	Win	✗	0.87	0.58
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Katsu, the Wanderer

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander McPherson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Nennich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 13:87

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Fang, Dracai of Blades

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tristan Kilper (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Little (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Bearden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.67
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Jamal Salem Saedidaryan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Katsu, the Wanderer

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 75:25

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Brook (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.25
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

Puffin, Hightail

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Addison Hudson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Curtis Roth (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80

Arakni, Marionette

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kent O’Neal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.93
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54

Katsu, the Wanderer

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jake Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wesley Chandler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54

Dash I/O

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Todd Woodworth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

Kano, Dracai of Aether

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John Milner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

Kano, Dracai of Aether

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75

Katsu, the Wanderer

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Nolder (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Claire Stanfield (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Kano, Dracai of Aether

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Donovan Mitchell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.