Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at US National Championship 2025
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
17 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
4.0
Surp
4.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Albert Irvine (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Hughes Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Jeremy Stowe (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
15:85
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R13 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
85th • 5-4-0
56%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
5.0
Surp
4.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Tagg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
Round 2: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
Round 5: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Myles Schortgen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R15 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
113th • 5-4-0
56%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Douglas Jones (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Dschaak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Ethan Davison (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Matthew W (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
Round 15: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
| R15 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
117th • 4-5-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brian Kaminsky (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Adam Madrigal (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
15:85
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Alexis Schlagenhauf (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
65:35
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
dropped • 4-1-0
80%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Williams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brad Betschart (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alexis Schlagenhauf (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Harrison Pruitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joel Recinos III (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs joseph Ramirez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
Round 5: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eugene Galipchak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyson Au (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Lee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
Round 4: Win vs Shane Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Seren Roberson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Terrence Bell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Loss vs Evan McGrew (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
3.2
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Caden Stabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
Round 5: Win vs Kenny Griggs (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dayton Blair (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeffrey Marmonti (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kaylum Uribes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Williams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Edward Knight (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andy Hong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs CODY READY (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs jaime bessett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Danielewicz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Dschaak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dakota Cochran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Becker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Martin Morford (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 15:85
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
Round 4: Loss vs Franche Tan (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.