Kassai of the Golden Sand at US National Championship 2025
Kassai of the Golden Sand
15 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
65th • 7-2-0
44%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
4.3
Surp
4.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Round 2: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs nathan lapham (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs William Pistel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
70:30
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Joseph McKinley (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Win |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R15 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
10th • 6-3-0
33%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.8
Surp
5.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Conner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69
Round 4: Win vs Andy Hong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Chase Osborne (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Round 14: Win vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
50:50
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
5.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Win |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
12th • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
4.1
Surp
4.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kevin Canales (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Adam Fischer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
55th • 6-3-0
44%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
4.0
Surp
5.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
Round 4: Win vs Charlie Herren (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Chris Martin (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Lucas Molho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
5.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
109th • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.8
Surp
5.4
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs joseph Ramirez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Round 4: Loss vs Diego Constantakis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Michael Lau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
Round 13: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
R14
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Ethan Davison (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 15: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
5.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Loss |
| R14 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
48th • 4-5-0
33%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 36:64
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Botchis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Irvin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70
25:75
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Benjamin Hebert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49
Round 15: Win vs Khoi Doan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R13 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Win |
dropped • 4-1-0
80%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joe Santianna (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Will Matthews (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dagan White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Gracza (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Noah Zinn (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49
Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Wesley Cole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sadat Minick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jose Badillo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gary Gold (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brad Betschart (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 83:17
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 85% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs George Ferris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70
Round 3: Win vs Justin Sybrandt (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Mark Larsen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 85% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-1
60%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
Round 2: Loss vs Pheano Black (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Edwards (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Emmitt Luna (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mark Larsen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 83:17
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Law (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
Round 3: Loss vs Celeste Beltz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Round 4: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Conner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Berg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Chester Stallings (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64
Round 5: Win vs Evan Chilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.