Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
15 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
120th • 5-4-0
0%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
4.9
Surp
4.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62
Round 2: Win vs Randall Suliga (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Steve Le (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Yuanji Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Damien Riggins (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Kamron Van Hulzen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
25:75
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Luke Gilmore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Round 14: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
0% (0/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R15 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
2.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Luce (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22
Round 4: Win vs Jose Badillo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Will Rea (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew Renz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alexis Schlagenhauf (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sean Gray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 65:35
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Axel Sisbarro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kyle Flowers (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
Round 4: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Celeste Beltz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ben Cook (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Becker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jeffrey Marmonti (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jake Bowar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Austin Revera (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Noah Geiger (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Igni Elegy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Steve Le (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Edward Knight (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Randall Suliga (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Lineman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Randy Davis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Bader (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wesley Cole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Cutbirth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Shane Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.