Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at US National Championship 2025
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
15 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
120th • 5-4-0
0%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.9
Surp
4.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60
Round 2: Win vs Randall Suliga (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Steve Le (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Yuanji Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Damien Riggins (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Kamron Van Hulzen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
20:80
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Luke Gilmore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
0% (0/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 25% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
3.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 25% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Luce (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jose Badillo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Will Rea (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew Renz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alexis Schlagenhauf (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sean Gray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
Round 3: Win vs Axel Sisbarro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
95:5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 93:7
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 95% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kyle Flowers (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64
Round 3: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Celeste Beltz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ben Cook (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
95:5
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 93:7
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 95% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Becker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jeffrey Marmonti (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jake Bowar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
Round 4: Win vs Austin Revera (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Noah Geiger (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Igni Elegy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Steve Le (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Edward Knight (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Randall Suliga (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Lineman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.3
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Randy Davis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Bader (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wesley Cole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 93:7, favorite upset
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Cutbirth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 95% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Shane Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.