Dorinthea Ironsong at US National Championship 2025
Dorinthea Ironsong
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
31st • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Trent Lennon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hughes Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Myles Schortgen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jake Bowar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
75:25
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Noah Zinn (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R15 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
107th • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.3
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Simon Murphy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Colin Turner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Kamron Van Hulzen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Luke Gilmore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R15 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Sybrandt (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs George Ferris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Solava (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Bearden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Tagg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs John Milner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aaron Cutbirth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Seiwert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Fisher Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Gracza (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Dschaak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs John Kim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.