FaB-Results
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Tyler
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
4.8
Diff
Dash I/O
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
Puffin, Hightail
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jesse Harper (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
!!
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
!!
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Justin Kinison (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory
Evan Dyck
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
!
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Grant Juaire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
!
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Reese Toomre (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Nuu, Alluring Desire
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Nuu, Alluring Desire
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Nuu, Alluring Desire
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.