Puffin, Hightail at US National Championship 2025
Puffin, Hightail
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-1-0
40%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Cutbirth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Shane Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeffrey Mazar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Justin Law (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs William Pearlman (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Donovan Mitchell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81
Round 5: Win vs Jenna Schoettker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 23:77
Round 4: Win vs Jose Garcia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jesus Montijo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 17:83
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua White (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
10:90
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 10:90
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs joseph Ramirez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 10% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.6
Surp
3.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Evan Bridges (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
5:95
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dagan White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 7:93
Round 4: Win vs Carlos Rosario (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 7:93, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 5% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 5% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Caden Stabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Warner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
10:90
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 10:90
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 10% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
0%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Ben Cook (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andy Hong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 17:83
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Trossman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68
Round 4: Win vs Michael McDowell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
5:95
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Omar Soubra (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 7:93
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 15% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 5% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs John Milner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Dabney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
10:90
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 10:90
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brennan Tolnay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Round 4: Win vs Charles Simmons (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Evans (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 10% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
10:90
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 10:90
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jenna Schoettker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 10% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Graham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Jennings (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81
Round 4: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.9
Diff
5:95
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kenn Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 4:96
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Wesley Chandler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Lineman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 17:83
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 5% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 15% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.