US National Championship 2025 - Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire (CC)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Tickal

dropped • 3-1-1

60%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Abigail Welday (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mark Larsen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.51
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	20%	Draw	✗	0.20	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Benjamin Cumming

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gary Gold (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Bonny (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Patrick Nelson

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cole Pellatt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Milner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Luce (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs george flete (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Sybrandt (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Johnson

dropped • 1-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Christ (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.