Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at US National Championship 2025
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
38th • 6-3-0
44%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
3.9
Surp
5.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Fisher Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Khoi Doan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
5.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jason Feng (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Nolder (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Rich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Adam Madrigal (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Steve Le (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Taylor Jennings (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
dropped • 0-5-0
80%
Meta
-2.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62
Round 3: Loss vs Joel Recinos III (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jack Sayer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Brower (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jamen Vedova (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.