Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
23 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
74th • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
4.0
Surp
4.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cody Campbell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Hebert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Josef Mendez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
101st • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
4.2
Surp
4.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Stowe (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Melora Cayce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Watson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Round 14: Win vs Wesley Dong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
60:40
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Sebastian Russell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R15 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
42nd • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
4.4
Surp
4.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kaden Grace (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Round 12: Win vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 13: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs gabriel ebady (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R14 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R15 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
62nd • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
4.8
Surp
2.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Wesley Chandler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
Round 2: Win vs Edward Knight (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andy Hong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Win vs Simon Murphy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Russell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Round 12: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Jake Bowar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R13 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R15 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
28th • 4-5-0
89%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Karl Kraemer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael McDowell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mike Cortes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs John Kim (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Sebastian Russell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Evan Herndon (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Patrick McGregor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Terrence Bell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Underwood (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Khoi Doan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nathan Bearden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Cullen Roth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kent O’Neal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evan Herndon (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeffrey Marmonti (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ynez Nevarez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Harrison Timothy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Luce (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Trossman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ben Rojas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Patrick McGregor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael McDowell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Bader (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Emmitt Luna (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Addison Hudson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs KC Glass (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luis Maderas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Eugene Galipchak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Anthony Bonny (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs connor rooney (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Win vs Brandon Green (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brady Hayes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Arocha-Coard (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Justin Sybrandt (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brad Betschart (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.4
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 79:21
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hasan Abdali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Seren Roberson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyson Au (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs David Watson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Dagan White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs george flete (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 2: Loss vs Erick Ortiz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Noah Zinn (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Todd Woodworth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Emmitt Luna (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Brower (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Round 4: Loss vs Kamron Van Hulzen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Conner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Timothy Carter (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.