Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
19 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 10-2-0
58%
Meta
+3.7
Perf
5.1
Surp
8.4
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeffrey Marmonti (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Sones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Arjun Garg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R16 CC
Round 16: Win vs Randy Davis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
Round 17: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 18: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
8.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R15 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R16 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R17 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R18 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
5th • 9-1-0
60%
Meta
+3.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
7.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justin Kinison (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hughes Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alyssa Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Josef Mendez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Round 12: Win vs Jude Cornett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
70:30
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Arjun Garg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
Round 15: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
45:55
R16 CC
Round 16: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
60% (6/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
7.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R16 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
25th • 8-1-0
44%
Meta
+3.3
Perf
4.2
Surp
6.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Sones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
75:25
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
Round 14: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Andrew Wilborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
6.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R14 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R15 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
36th • 7-2-0
67%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
5.5
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dakota Cook (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Randall Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 83:17
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Damien Riggins (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Myles Schortgen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Round 14: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R15 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
23rd • 6-3-0
78%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
4.2
Surp
4.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Law (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Trossman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Christ (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Devon Porcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48
Round 12: Loss vs Hughes Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
75:25
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
Round 14: Win vs gabriel ebady (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
70:30
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R13 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R14 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R15 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
45th • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
4.6
Surp
5.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Carson Osborne (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Gracza (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
Round 3: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
75:25
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Daniel Edwards (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Round 15: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
5.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R15 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
53rd • 6-3-0
22%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
4.3
Surp
6.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Danielle Williams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Berg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Carter Barton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Paris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Damien Riggins (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
6.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
75th • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
4.3
Surp
3.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thomas Arocha-Coard (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Round 5: Loss vs Hasan Abdali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Joseph McKinley (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
Round 13: Win vs Collin Cromwell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
75:25
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Rich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R14 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-1-0
60%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
2.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tristan Kilper (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Cole Pellatt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 70:30
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brandon Green (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Khoi Doan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Steven Suh (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 61:39
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Round 4: Win vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jose Garcia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 70:30
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 70:30
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 70% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chris Martin (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 83:17
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Johnny Wedzicha (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs David Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 2: Loss vs Alyssa Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tristen Farmer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Anthony Bonny (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Celeste Beltz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nic Barnes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs JP Coleman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Cameron Cassese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Emmitt Luna (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyson Au (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs William Pistel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.