Jarl Vetreiði at US National Championship 2025
Jarl Vetreiði
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
80th • 6-2-1
67%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
4.4
Surp
4.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brendan Klempa (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wyatt Schmitt (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82
Round 12: Win vs Lucas Molho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Draw vs Justin Salmon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Draw |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R15 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
52nd • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
4.2
Surp
7.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Oren Yishai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pheano Black (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Diego Constantakis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
Round 14: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 15: Win vs Theodore Raitzer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
7.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 70% | Win |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R15 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Win |
dropped • 3-1-1
80%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Porter Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Addison Hudson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Leon Lu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Tommy Buljan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Draw |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
2.1
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jamen Vedova (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nick Webb (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Griesser (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Steven Suh (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cullen Roth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Khoi Doan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Underwood (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jack Sayer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
60%
Meta
-2.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brady Hayes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dakota Cochran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
Round 3: Loss vs Cullen Roth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Thorington (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joe Robles (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thomas Nennich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Victor Lam (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.