Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at US National Championship 2025
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
25 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 9-3-0
75%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
6.0
Surp
6.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Round 2: Win vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dennis Pham (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
Round 5: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Patrick McGregor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Round 15: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
65:35
R16 CC
Round 16: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R17 CC
Round 17: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Round 18: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
6.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R15 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
| R16 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R17 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R18 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
19th • 7-2-0
78%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
4.2
Surp
4.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justin Salmon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Win vs Tho Bui (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jude Cornett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Kyle Femmer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
20th • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.1
Surp
4.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Colin Ross (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Win vs Carter Barton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
50th • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
4.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Johny Nguyen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Isaac Houk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35
Round 12: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
75:25
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23
65:35
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Win |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
81st • 6-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Steven Caraher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Seren Roberson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Round 3: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
Round 12: Loss vs Khoi Doan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Wesley Dong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
Round 14: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
75:25
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23
Meta Fit
100% (9/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R15 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Win |
63rd • 4-5-0
89%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
5.0
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Alyssa Carden (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Towne (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Harrison Pruitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35
Round 12: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Austin Somers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 15: Loss vs Andrew Griesser (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R13 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R15 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
119th • 3-5-1
89%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
4.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dexter Canright (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Gabriel Montes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Fagalde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Justin Graham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Sebastian Russell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Draw |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R15 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
61st • 3-6-0
67%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
4.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Hasan Abdali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Elsey (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Randall Suliga (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
25:75
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
Round 14: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Diego Constantakis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R13 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
| R15 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
97th • 3-6-0
67%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
4.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Thea Hognadottir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joshua White (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Frank Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
Round 12: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
R14
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R13 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
| R15 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
112th • 2-6-1
67%
Meta
-2.6
Perf
4.0
Surp
0.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jordan Long (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brady Hayes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Round 3: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Draw vs Josef Mendez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Mark Bradshaw (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Draw |
| R13 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R14 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R15 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wesley Cole (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Round 2: Win vs Thea Hognadottir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joshua Conner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
Round 14: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
Round 2: Win vs Kaylum Uribes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Omeid Vadipour (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Steven Suh (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50
Round 12: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.3
Surp
2.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Harrison Timothy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Henry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Round 4: Win vs Peyton Gage (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jamen Vedova (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alan Hoang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jesse Harper (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ben Rojas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Bruner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sophia Claire (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marsha Ho (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
Round 3: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Solava (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Arocha-Coard (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Terrence Bell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Frank Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kyle Flowers (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justin Evans (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75
Round 4: Win vs Arivae Chol (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Lineman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Huynh (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kate Wescott (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs George Ferris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-1
60%
Meta
-2.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Danielewicz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Joe Robles (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
Round 5: Loss vs Geoffrey Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Draw |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Axel Sisbarro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Craig Ketchum (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-1
0%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tho Bui (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marsha Ho (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Draw |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.