Fai, Rising Rebellion at US National Championship 2025

Fai, Rising Rebellion

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Watson

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jake Bowar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elliott Rinke (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Danielewicz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.39
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Ian Daryl Bon

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Omar Soubra (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will Rea (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Claire Stanfield (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Legend

Performance Metrics