Levia, Shadowborn Abomination at US National Championship

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mark Cornett

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Botchis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Green (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs CODY READY (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kaylum Uribes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.73
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.32
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Claire Stanfield

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Grant Juaire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Angus Blaxall (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jake Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Rutkowski

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Anthony (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jo Burch (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.