Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Pro Tour: Las Vegas 2026

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

53 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Filipe L. Cardoso

2nd • 8-4-0

75%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

6.0

Surp

5.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R17 CC

Round 17: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R18 CC

Round 18: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.63
R15	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R16	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.59
R17	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.69
R18	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Alexander Vore

3rd • 10-1-0

100%

Meta

+4.0

Perf

5.1

Surp

6.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arvin Bernardo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Trent Williams (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Vonderwell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Christian Hauck (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Rob Catton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R17 CC

Round 17: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (11/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.17
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.22
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R12	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.14
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.64
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.17
R15	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.74
R16	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.45
R17	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Majin Bae

5th • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

4.9

Surp

5.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Christian Hauck (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Filipe L. Cardoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R16 CC

Round 16: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.10
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.65
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.30
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.00
R15	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.79
R16	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Laurens Van der Beek

45th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

5.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Warburton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Youngblut (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Natalie Birch (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Raea Mitchell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.20
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.46
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.95
R13	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R14	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.33
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Robert Szary

80th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zach Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs John Cooper (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.08
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.41
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.51
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R14	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.61
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Tyler Zeringue

84th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

5.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Connor Leverton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Franche Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.12
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.75
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.53

Evan Bridges

58th • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edison Yue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Lau (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shane Martin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Robert Szary (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Camden Keener (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.30
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.78
R14	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Raea Mitchell

60th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Charles Dunn (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin Chinn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.10
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.32
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R13	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.61
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Buddensiek

75th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.4

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Xavier Elizondo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs John Cooper (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.03
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.58
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.38
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R15	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.02

Christian Vitanza

98th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arvin Bernardo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Teixeira (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Salmon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Reuben An (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Robert Szary (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.58
R12	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.09
R14	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.27
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Brown

101st • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Pelka (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs kouji hamada (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Hazama Levi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs John Zapata (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.13
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.30
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.23
R13	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

John Zapata

105th • 3-6-0

89%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

4.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Artis Ivanovs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sunny Yang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs RICARDO DIAZ (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.20
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.51
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R14	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

francisco guerrero

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Pistel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Edison Yue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Patrick R (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.08
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.46
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R12	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.82
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Renz

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Sitrick (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Corwin Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs James Miller (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R12	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Mark Morrison

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ezra Menchen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kindreck Hegsted (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Kyle Johnson

dropped • 4-1-0

80%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max McLean (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zachery Hill (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Abigail Welday (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.45
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.43
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Rogelio Passafaro

dropped • 4-1-0

60%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Savinien Castel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Logan May (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Hannan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.31
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.91
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Adam Fronsee

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Romar Richardson (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.52
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.95
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.54

Andrew Blackwell

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs RICARDO DIAZ (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David McCartney (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.74
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Henry Gomez

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick Tiller (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simon Murphy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.31
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.74
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

James Miller

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs J Ehlinger (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.84
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jeremy Chen

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs DOUGLAS CHAGAS (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.26
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.97
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hanno Guellicher (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Neil Bautista (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.65
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Justin Fryar

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Reese Toomre (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Colter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rob Catton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.22
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Martin Holík

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Moore (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.43
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.19

Phillip Pelley

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Hewett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Caleb Engen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Randy Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Robin Avenoso

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Redington (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Hamilton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jake Montalbano (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Irby (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.44
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Victor Mercado

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Alexander Hempelmann

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Filipe L. Cardoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Corwin Benton

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Neil Bautista (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Dominique JABES

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mike Williams (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hazama Levi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Edison Yue

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Bridges (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Bader (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jared Contaldi

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wesley Chandler (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 広朗大澤 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Liam Donnelly

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Gilmore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Minh Tran (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Lau (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Sitrick (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.68
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Luke Gilmore

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs nathan lapham (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Fabian Rex (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R4	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Matthew Colter

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Hsu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ben Weinfeld (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Max McLean

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Weinfeld (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Victoria Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.29

Philip van Donselaar

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs David McCartney (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Savinien Castel

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rogelio Passafaro (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Logan May (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs kouji hamada (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.22
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Taylor Nifong

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raea Mitchell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.26
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Andrew Cook

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wilmer Aguilar Ramos (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jesse Hudak

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

KOTA SANJO

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wesley Chandler (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Sitrick (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Johnathan Carrillo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Katsuya Hirai

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Martin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Tiller (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs William Hewett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Raheel Khalid

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Gutierrez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Yuki Matsumoto

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ocimar Couto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.83
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jonathan Raymond

dropped • 0-5-0

80%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Arvin Bernardo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

NIGEL LOUTZENHISER

dropped • 0-5-0

80%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jr . (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David McCartney (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Cook (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

William Hewett

dropped • 0-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Pelley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Weinfeld (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Franche Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jared Au (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Katsuya Hirai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Evan Herndon

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Heilbronn (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Diego Gonzalez Vilas (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Sullivan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Luke Putz

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Tommy Buljan

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Wilson

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.