Aurora, Legacy of Tempest
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
23rd • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
4.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Josh Martin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
15:85
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Jordan Vonderwell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
25:75
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Tatsuya OKANISHI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
| R15 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.7
Surp
3.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Round 5: Win vs DOUGLAS CHAGAS (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 25% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Leon Cassel (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Jordan Long (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Cooper (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jakob Swartley (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.