Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
66th • 7-1-1
22%
Meta
+3.8
Perf
5.1
Surp
9.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Evan Herndon (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Round 12: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Round 13: Win vs John Cooper (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Round 14: Win vs Reese Toomre (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
30:70
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
9.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Draw |
| R4 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Win |
| R14 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Win |
| R15 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
83rd • 6-3-0
22%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.7
Surp
7.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Steven Leyva (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Justin Salmon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Reuben An (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Lucas Ng (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Round 15: Win vs Joshua Rath (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
7.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Zyggy Starlight | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
Round 2: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rob Catton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
Round 5: Win vs Hazama Levi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mel Falcon (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.