Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at Pro Tour: Las Vegas 2026

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ben Weinfeld

dropped • 3-2-0

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Hewett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Max McLean (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Colter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.68	0.65
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.68	1.30
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.68	1.62

Ethan Raymond

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Baker (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dagan White (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mike Williams (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.29
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.86
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Jake Montalbano

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 10:90

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Gutierrez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 20:80

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luke Manship (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Aurora Kynkor

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jo Burch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Butera (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ocimar Couto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Mel Falcon

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ocimar Couto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Reynolds (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.62
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.