Dash I/O at Pro Tour: Las Vegas 2026

Dash I/O

31 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

William Pistel

17th • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.8

Surp

6.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Christian Hauck (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Ian Hsu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.18
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.07
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.69
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R14	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.97
R15	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.48

Devon Killebrew

18th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David McCartney (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rogelio Passafaro (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.18
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.16
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.14
R14	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.26
R15	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.83

kouji hamada

94th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zachery Hill (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robin Andrews (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Savinien Castel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Ryan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.51
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.22
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.18
R14	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R15	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Warre Sevens

100th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.4

Surp

5.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jakub Kulpinski (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jo Burch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ben Stuttgen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Zack Phillips (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.10
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.24
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.44
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.08
R13	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R14	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R15	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.74	3.22

Pat Eshghy

91st • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jodey Burney (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Guilherme Coutinho (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Victor Mercado (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Milner (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Rob Catton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.10
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.74	2.79
R14	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Anton Cid Mejias

64th • 4-5-0

56%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ralph Abou Hala (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachery Hill (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Austin Chinn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Natalie Birch (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Raphael Rosa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.35
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.69
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.17
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.38
R15	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Sam Sutherland

92nd • 4-5-0

22%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jakob Swartley (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nova Chan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jordan Vonderwell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Camden Keener (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Josh Martin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 31:69

25:75

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.14
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.83
R14	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R15	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Emmanuel Barron

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Sullivan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lewis Foulkes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Hsu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.15
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.91
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jeffrey Mazar

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Lin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Erik Stenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.45
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.63
R12	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Connor Bryant

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexis Gunthner (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Butera (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Evan Herndon (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Montes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.64
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Patrick R

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nova Chan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alan Teixeira (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.84
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.03
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Charlie Heavilin

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Bradshaw (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Kruman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dominique JABES (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.43
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

John Milner

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Leon Lu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.53
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.65
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Chițu

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Natalie Birch (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.33
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Andrew Wilborn

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Heilbronn (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Keisuke Iwamura (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

Arthur Reynolds

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Moore (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mel Falcon (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.66
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Ben Miller

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Pelka (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mike Williams (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Perkins (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.66
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.73
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

DOUGLAS CHAGAS

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Shaffer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Natalie Birch (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jakob Swartley (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Jo Burch

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Vonderwell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jakob Allan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.33
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.16
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Justin Irby

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Bader (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.51
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Osmar Bravo

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs William Pistel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs KOTA SANJO (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charlie Manning (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.33
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Zachery Hill

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs kouji hamada (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Garrett Ronco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.93
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

広朗大澤

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Erik Stenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jaden De-Arth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.65
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

AUSTIN BRILL

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs João Pereira (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.33
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Ian Zhang

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Xavier Elizondo

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zach Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Garrett Ronco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Yoshihiko Kato

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Lundeen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zach Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Bastien LAVIGNON

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Cooper (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charlie Manning (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Eric Lin

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Perkins (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Emanuel Corps-Ortiz

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 33:67

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Bruner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Dalton Cameron

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filipe L. Cardoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 広朗大澤 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.