Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Pro Tour: Las Vegas 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

16th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

4.5

Surp

6.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Danton Lima (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.08
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.34
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.59
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.95
R13	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R14	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.06
R15	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.77

Ian Hsu

28th • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.7

Surp

5.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Colter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Cook (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs William Pistel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.42
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.46
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.61
R12	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.97
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R14	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.65
R15	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Anthony O’Hara

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Randy Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.21
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.66
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Simon Murphy

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kindreck Hegsted (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Artis Ivanovs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.51
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.83
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.49

David Hamilton

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Erik Stenberg

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 広朗大澤 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Philip Parker (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.93
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Owen Young

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.42
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Adam Cook

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Hsu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.03
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Alexis Gunthner

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mychael Gochee (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Emery Powell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Logan May

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul Barthonnet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rogelio Passafaro (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.21
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Nick Tiller

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.77
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.