Vynnset, Iron Maiden
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
16th • 7-2-0
44%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
4.5
Surp
6.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
Round 2: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Danton Lima (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
6.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R14 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
28th • 6-3-0
33%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
4.7
Surp
5.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Colter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Adam Cook (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 12: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs William Pistel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Randy Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kindreck Hegsted (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Artis Ivanovs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Round 5: Win vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 広朗 大澤 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
Round 3: Win vs Philip Parker (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ian Hsu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mychael Gochee (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Emery Powell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Paul Barthonnet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rogelio Passafaro (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.