Fai, Rising Rebellion at Pro Tour: Las Vegas 2026
Fai, Rising Rebellion
15 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
53rd • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hanno Guellicher (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Steven Caraher (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Josh Martin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R15 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Loss |
88th • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
4.5
Surp
3.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Roger Alan Luna Fernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Stowe (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Charles Dunn (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs John Zapata (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R15 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Loss |
104th • 5-4-0
22%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
4.4
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs DOUGLAS CHAGAS (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs John Cooper (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R15 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Teran Hancock (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-1-0
20%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Emery Powell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Milner (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alex Fraser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tatsuya OKANISHI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
0%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Phillip Pelley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Filipe L. Cardoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Fabian Rex (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kindreck Hegsted (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Robert Szary (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Rath (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Ricca (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gary Gold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jack Mountford (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Milner (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Reynolds (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Patrick R (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Franche Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Ricca (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matt Muus (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Shane Martin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs James Miller (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luke Manship (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
Round 5: Win vs Connor Leverton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs KOTA SANJO (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.