Zyggy Starlight
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
21st • 7-1-1
89%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
4.3
Surp
7.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Philip Parker (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Ryan Baker (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Round 12: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
85:15
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14
50:50
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
7.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 85% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R13 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Jarl Vetreiði | 85% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-2-0
33%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christian Hauck (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Soya Okuda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rogelio Passafaro (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
Round 4: Win vs J Ehlinger (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gary Gold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Noah Clark (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luke Manship (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14
Round 4: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Trent Williams (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Win vs Ronit Patel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Ian Zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Franche Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ken Kuwahara (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Win vs Ezra Menchen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
5:95
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 7:93
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 5% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Clair (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Connor Leverton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marcus Neumaier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.