Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Pro Tour: Las Vegas 2026
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 6-3-0
11%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
4.1
Surp
6.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 37:63
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Round 5: Win vs Caleb Jansen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Tatsuya OKANISHI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
70:30
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 70:30
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Evan Bridges (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Evan Ford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
11% (1/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
6.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Win |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R14 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
63rd • 5-4-0
56%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Elaine Cao (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 70:30
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
95:5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 93:7
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Michael Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36
R15
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zyggy Starlight | 95% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Huntsman | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R15 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mychael Gochee (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Round 13: Loss vs Matt Muus (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 3-1-1
20%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Tatsuya OKANISHI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Draw |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Raea Mitchell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs May Hayden (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Win vs Roger Alan Luna Fernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Zak Miller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs RICARDO DIAZ (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.2
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 14:86
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christian Pelka (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Wesley Dong (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jakob Allan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs John Zapata (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Luke Putz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zachary Adams (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nick Tiller (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ricardo Rua (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Loss vs Zachery Hill (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Xavier Elizondo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 37:63
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eric Lin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Derrick Azelton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Teran Hancock (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.