Pro Tour: Las Vegas 2026 - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

47 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Hamilton

5th • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Irby (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jordan Vonderwell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Nova Chan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R16 CC

Round 16: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.07
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.11
R3	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.13
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.44
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.75
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.91
R15	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R16	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Nova Chan

11th • 8-1-0

89%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

5.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick R (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Laksana Eka S.P. (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Muus (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Danton Lima (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Shoki Imacho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.05
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.21
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.19
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.50
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.21
R13	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.31
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.01
R15	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jordan Vonderwell

10th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jo Burch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke Shinn (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

85:15

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 83:17

25:75

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.05
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.20
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.69
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.24
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.43
R15	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Matt Muus

49th • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

6.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David McCartney (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nova Chan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Heilbronn (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Raphael Rosa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Gui Cohen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.07
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.12
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R13	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Win	✗	0.70	2.48
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.71
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.83

Randy Davis

65th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jr . (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.24
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.54
R12	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.59
R14	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Josh Lind

67th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Putz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leon Lu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Pistel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs kouji hamada (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.11
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.79
R14	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.68
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jakob Allan

70th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jo Burch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Oren Yishai (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jeff Morvan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.19
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.30
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.46
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.36
R14	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.03
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Ivan Taranto

77th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gary Gold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Cooper (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Romar Richardson (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kindreck Hegsted (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Robert Szary (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.12
R2	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.10
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.15
R12	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.39
R14	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R15	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.73

Zack Phillips

107th • 5-3-1

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jean-Louis Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dominique JABES (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs William Bodo (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Damien Riggins (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Franche Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Draw vs Laksana Eka S.P. (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.12
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.21
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.50
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R15	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Michael Jaszczur

57th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ocimar Couto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christian Pelka (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

15:85

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Austin Redington (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

30:70

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.79
R14	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R15	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Dennis Zhang

78th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Giovanni Scuderi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Raymond (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matt Sullivan (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Raea Mitchell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.63
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R15	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.91

Marco Marcelli

96th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Gutierrez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Neumaier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dagan White (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Diego Gonzalez Vilas (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs None (Unknown)

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Natalie Birch (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.03
R15	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Brandon Stolzer

89th • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Lundeen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Mistkawi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Martin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeff Morvan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jordan Long (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Hazama Levi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Randy Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Raphael Rosa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.46
R13	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R14	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

John Cooper

99th • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sunny Yang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tre Baroncini (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Diego Gonzalez Vilas (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Robert Szary (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Natalie Birch (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.05
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.24
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.12
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R15	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.11

Damien Riggins

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Neil Bautista (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs William Bradshaw (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luke Shinn (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.73
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Yau

dropped • 4-1-0

80%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Reuben An (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nghia Tran (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Noah Beygelman

dropped • 3-1-1

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Connor Leverton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Laksana Eka S.P. (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Wilborn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zachery Hill (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.35
R5	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.44

Eric Dauernnheim

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Oldes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jodey Burney (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Moore (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.88
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Filippo Barbani

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brian Gutierrez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Barthonnet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kit Valentine (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.88
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.55

Jr .

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Randy Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Camden Keener (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.52
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.75

Nicholas Tran

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Manship (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Raymond (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Lundeen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.48
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.75

Thomas Johnson-Averette

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexis Gunthner (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.34
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tim Sofsky

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs May Hayden (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.77
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Baptiste Schmittlin

dropped • 2-2-1

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Victoria Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Jacob Bader (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.26
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Draw	✗	0.32	-

Tyler Winther

dropped • 2-2-1

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Keisuke Iwamura (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.73
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Adam Heilbronn

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Wilborn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Muus (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.30
R3	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.26
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Brandon Butera

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.48
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Brian Gutierrez

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Montalbano (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ronit Patel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.77
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Charlie Herren

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Raymond (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Barthonnet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.66
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Christian Pelka

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul Barthonnet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.09
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Hayden Jeanson

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shane Martin (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Raymond (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.22
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Jack Mountford

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leon Lu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Young (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jason Rolfe

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jean-Louis Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 23:77

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Perkins (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

João Pereira

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Jansen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.35
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Niels Kornerup

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jared Au (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.73
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Vinicius Timm Toniazzo

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Kruijsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.39
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Andrew Padlesky

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Laksana Eka S.P. (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ronit Patel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Redington (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.26
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Anthony Cicchinelli

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yoshihiko Kato (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Kulpinski (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Butera (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.26
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Arvin Bernardo

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Sitrick (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Raymond (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Franche Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.77
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Luke Manship

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Bruner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs May Hayden (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jake Montalbano (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Philip Parker

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Redington (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erik Stenberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bernardo José Alves (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Win	✗	0.86	0.56
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Yukihiko Ikeda

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Raymond (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

nicolas Jamoulle

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.09
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Connor Leverton

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Henry Leasure (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs May Hayden (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Luis Cisneros

dropped • 0-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs João Pereira (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick McKenna (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Jesse Harper

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Ricca (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

george flete

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wilmer Aguilar Ramos (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ezra Menchen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.