Pro Tour: Las Vegas 2026 - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Lewis

68th • 5-4-0

22%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

6.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tatsuya OKANISHI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Leon Cassel (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs William Bradshaw (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.75
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.91
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.74
R14	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.08
R15	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Jesse Hinman

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hazama Levi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Filipe L. Cardoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.29
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.15
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Benjamin Cumming

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs J Ehlinger (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jacob Pacheco

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Milner (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Kruijsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.