Calling: Las Vegas 2026 - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

62 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tom Escoffier

3rd • 12-3-0

73%

Meta

+4.0

Perf

7.2

Surp

5.8

Diff

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Perkins (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Vargas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kent Summerour (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Roger Alan Luna Fernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Emery Powell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Elias Brooks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs CLARK Moore (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

73% (11/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.0 Wins (8.0 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

7.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.02
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.13
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.32
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.28
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.67
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R13	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.74
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.01
R15	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Arjun Garg

5th • 10-4-0

64%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

6.8

Surp

3.9

Diff

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Revera (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Baptiste Schmittlin (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Moore (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Elias Brooks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs David Lee (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Wyatt Schmitt (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.04
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.19
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.62
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R9	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Brandon Coyle

13th • 10-3-0

77%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

6.6

Surp

5.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dustin Douglass (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexis Gunthner (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Cowan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Garrett Ronco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bill Dower (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jo Burch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Daniel Chilgren (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Luke Manship (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.42
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.69
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.69
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.83
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.77
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Elias Brooks

16th • 10-3-0

77%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

5.8

Surp

4.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Archer Hyland-Taylor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aron Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victoria Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emery Powell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jack Mountford (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Roger Alan Luna Fernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.03
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.17
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.20
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.28
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.49
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.69
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.60
R10	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.44
R11	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.85

Francesco Giorgio

27th • 9-4-0

77%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

6.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fredrick Gamble (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Spencer Messerich (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Sanders (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brian Gutierrez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Fuzzy Delp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs CLARK Moore (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Soya Okuda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs kosei chetanna (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.05
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.20
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.14
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.39
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R6	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.53
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.48
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.72
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Jean-Louis Nguyen

35th • 9-4-0

54%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

6.3

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ezra Menchen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs François Corneau-Tremblay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Odenheimer (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Celeste Beltz (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Corwin Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs David Ackley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Luke Manship (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

54% (7/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.07
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.19
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.24
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.46
R6	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.58
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.67
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.72
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.84
R13	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jeremy Kruman

41st • 9-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Edwin Avalos Godoy (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jared Price (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wesley Robinson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tyson Au (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Fernando Mejia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Brian Gutierrez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Michael Clair (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.04
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.21
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.16
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.29
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.58
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Matthew Harris

42nd • 9-4-0

62%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Rivera (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jean-Louis Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wesley Eaton (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fernando Mejia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Chester Stallings (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

62% (8/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.09
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.19
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.18
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.29
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.64
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.60
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.55
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R13	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Joe Canton Encarnacion

56th • 8-5-0

69%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

5.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mason O'Mara (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jon Cardenas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Eldridge (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Edison Yue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jo Burch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs 秀太栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ka Chan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Daniel Chilgren (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.05
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.19
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.42
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.49
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.60
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.28
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Fernando Mejia

57th • 8-5-0

77%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

6.8

Surp

3.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier Elizondo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Sarraf (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anthony DT Zichella (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jared severn (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jeremy Kruman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Victoria Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.20
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.21
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.26
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.56
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.85
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.50
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

GAICHI YAMADA

58th • 8-5-0

69%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

6.7

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs kosei chetanna (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Justin Rim (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs sean Burke (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.14
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.21
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.38
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.31
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.64
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R13	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ

dropped • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

5.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vlad Kokhanevich (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs George Mistkawi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kyle Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mark lewis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tyson Au (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs sean Burke (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.06
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.07
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.39
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.63
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R11	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Gabriel Montes

dropped • 7-4-0

82%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dale Mushinski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sean Gray (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Bader (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs CLARK Moore (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Max Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Justin Rim (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.06
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.25
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.33
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R9	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.08
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jodey Burney

dropped • 6-3-1

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Allen Grube (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Levi Blue (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jesse Gibson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Dumansky (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Lau (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Draw vs Zachary Wallach (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs David Ackley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.12
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.20
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.51
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.66
R9	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Draw	✓	0.60	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Tommy Buljan

dropped • 6-4-0

60%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Max Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chester Stallings (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Celeste Beltz (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alvin Kim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jake Torres (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Connor Symons (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.19
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Alexander Zamora

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bennett Robinson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Kandziolka (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jared Au (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kyle Gamboa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs nathan lapham (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.13
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.13
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.81
R7	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R8	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Benjamin Klunpaitoon

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Putz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Enos (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Carter Barton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs João Pereira (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.15
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Gary Gold

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Myles Schortgen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Cohea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Blake Meier (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jared Price (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

80:20

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ka Chan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.22
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Matthew Brown

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Irby (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kenjy Jap (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dylon Shiao (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.68
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Max Villarreal

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Miller (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Winther (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Deven Nilsson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Travis Woodward (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jeffrey Han (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gabriel Montes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.54
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Noah Timney

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Watkins (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brett Bowden (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christian Hopkins (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Isaac Chall (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.53
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Yasunari Sakuma

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Miller-Booker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Bruner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Tiller (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Shawn Adams (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs kosei chetanna (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.51
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Yuki Matsumoto

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Gutierrez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ronit Patel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Palmisano (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andre Thomas (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aleksandar Bjelic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Justin Irby (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.22
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.58
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

ZACHARY JENSEN

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Colter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Gilmore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Ackley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Knott (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nick Tiller (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs sean Burke (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.58
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R8	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jeffrey Han

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carlos Daniel Zamora Salazar (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs KOTA SANJO (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs O'Ryan Hampton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Gripkey (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Cohea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Max Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.07
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Kevin Murphy

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Terrence Bell (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Minh Tran (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bernardo José Alves (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Simon Murphy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.48
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Paul Barthonnet

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Tagg (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Hamilton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Travis Woodward (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Stidger (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Porter Boroski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Robert Cutler (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.81
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Ryan McIntyre

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andy Valenuzela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Edwin Avalos Godoy (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Blake Meier (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R7	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.47
R8	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Zachary Adams

dropped • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs William Bodo (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ezra Menchen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Diana Green (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Chall (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Ackley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brandon Lenshyn (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.19

Cody Broten

dropped • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Greget (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Mistkawi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Nilsson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin McBride (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs William Bodo (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.77
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alvin Kim

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Clair (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Seren Roberson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dolgoon Batbold (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mark Taylor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.53
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.44
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Bryce Douglas

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Fraser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Riley Adams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Oren Yishai (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ka Chan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.47
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Carlos Romero

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kai Sickler (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Pelley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Derrick Azelton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Edwin Avalos Godoy (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.06
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.47
R6	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.46
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Griffin Arnold

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kenneth Thomas (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyler Trim (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robin Andrews (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Travis Woodward (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Jacob Oldes

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Hewett (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Manship (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Fraser (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Austin Chinn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Emery Powell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Baptiste Schmittlin (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Mikael Lundberg

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Salvador Morales (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ocimar Couto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ynez Nevarez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Colter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Derrick Azelton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paul Barthonnet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.62
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.44
R6	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Ward

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs gary grine (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Celeste Beltz (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fabian Rex (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alan Teixeira (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Carlos Romero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.24
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sunny Yang

dropped • 3-2-1

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Enos (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Lin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs George Mistkawi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jared Au (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.51
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Cavin Saravanan

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bradley Cox (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mark Johnson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Lindley (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Josh Hill (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.45
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Tran (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Douglas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs RANDY CHAN (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Brown (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kelsey LeBaron (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.51
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.22
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jacob Pacheco

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eli Barila (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Shope (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Stidger (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Taiga Maeda (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Edward Kimble (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.55
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Lee Kimball

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Garrett Johnson (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ignacio Riego (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R5	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Justin Shaffer

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Stidger (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hanno Guellicher (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Warnek (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexis Gunthner (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Manship (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Iannacone (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Anthony Campbell

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Darren Knopes (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Stidger (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Campbell (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Fraser (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Artis Ivanovs

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Laws (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs michael mills (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aron Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.34
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Nathan Vargas

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robert Samson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Villarreal (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Ynez Nevarez

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Reynolds (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Murphy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bradley Cox (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John Kim (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.37
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Christopher Stidger

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Shaffer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Campbell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke Snyder (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Paul Barthonnet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Nilsson

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Hopkins (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mariusz Korlacki (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Broten (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dustin Douglass

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Braden Wooldridge (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Mark Johnson

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathan Turcotte

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nomi Lynn (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CLARK Moore (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Miller (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Garrett Hodsdon (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Samuel West

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hudson Graves (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Price (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Pier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Bollier (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Aiden Coakley

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Trossman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Branden Nall (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bernardo José Alves (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Gus Enger

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Conry (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Manship (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.86
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jonathan Sanchez

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Payne Ummerteskee (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Philip Lam Le (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Philip Luzod (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Wilmer Aguilar Ramos

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Potter (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.38
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Branden Nall

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aiden Coakley (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Tavres (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Illuvial Arnett

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gen Shinohara (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Greg Sutcliffe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Joseph Welton

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Allen Grube (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Johnathan Carrillo

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Putz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Sweany (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philip van Donselaar

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ayden Dukeshier (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.