Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ralph Abou Hala (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs aaron leblanc (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Neil Bautista (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Wesley Chandler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Connor Symons (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Chilgren (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-1
62%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
4.5
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Murgolo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Violet Dold (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Oscar Aguilar (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Carlos Romero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
Round 6: Win vs Curtis Cooper (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Jonathon Harty (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 8: Loss vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Draw |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
50%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mariusz Korlacki (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Branden Adams (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Lenshyn (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Wagoner (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Steven Nemeth (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ralph Abou Hala (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nathan Palmisano (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ralph Abou Hala (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
0.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Philip Parker (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
0.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs michael mills (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
0% (0/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.