Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
49th • 9-4-0
46%
Meta
+3.8
Perf
6.5
Surp
6.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Sitrick (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Simon Wonser (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ben Hannan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Lee (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 7: Win vs Bryce Douglas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Gary Gold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Hanno Guellicher (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
20:80
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Roger Alan Luna Fernandez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
46% (6/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.5 total deviation
Difficulty
6.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Win |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Lee (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Abanto (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Zamora (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brian Laws (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
Round 6: Win vs Sunny Yang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kenji Enomoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Justin Rim (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.1
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bruce Xu (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andy Bonny (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Dumansky (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs nathan lapham (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mark lewis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Dominique JABES (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
dropped • 1-7-0
75%
Meta
-2.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
0.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sean Glancy (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jo Burch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Simon Murphy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Robert Trepany (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Maciej Naruszewicz (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Keyton Adams (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Mariusz Korlacki (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jon Gibson (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Murgolo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs James Kandziolka (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kyle Farrell (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David M. Smith (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Baptiste Schmittlin (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs DOUGLAS CHAGAS (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Emmerson Montgomery (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Luis Marlon Villarreal (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Towne (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Cohea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Brown (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mark lewis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Miguel Torres (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Natanael Eguren (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Miguel Torres (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Sitrick (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jon Cardenas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Varun Nambikrishnan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.