Aurora, Legacy of Tempest
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 6-5-0
82%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
5.4
Surp
3.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Austin Ryan (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Win vs Marco Gomez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Baptiste Schmittlin (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs James Miller (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ignacio Riego (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
82% (9/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-5-0
75%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brooks Mitchell (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Charlie Manning (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Villarreal (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Clair (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs John Abanto (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Fernando Perez Lagunas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Wesley Robinson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Adam Thomas Turnbull (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tanner Lee (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Sanders (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Varun Nambikrishnan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jared Au (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Timothy Klundt (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Oscar Aguilar (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marco Gomez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ron Bello (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Noah Timney (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jo Burch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hiroaki Osawa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jose Badillo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joseph Perez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Chang (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs James Kandziolka (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ronit Patel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Morgan Jensen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marcus Brown (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs michael mills (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
75%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hayley Neighbors (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nick Rutkowski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Watkins (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
100%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jake Torres (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John Abanto (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Natanael Eguren (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Teran Hancock (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Perkins (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs James Potter (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.