Fai, Rising Rebellion
25 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
10th • 10-3-0
54%
Meta
+3.2
Perf
5.9
Surp
4.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Armando Aguilar (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bryce Douglas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
95:5
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ignacio Riego (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Wesley Dong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jean-Louis Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Thomas Lund (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
75:25
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Celeste Beltz (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
54% (7/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 95% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
14th • 10-3-0
69%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
6.4
Surp
4.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kelsey LeBaron (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luke Shinn (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Thomas Lund (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Round 10: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
69% (9/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
6.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
67th • 8-5-0
46%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
6.2
Surp
3.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs nathan lapham (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
Round 3: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luke Putz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs james Hoenstine (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
Round 9: Win vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Emery Powell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
46% (6/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R13 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lewis Foulkes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Ackley (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeffrey Han (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Steven Caraher (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
Round 5: Loss vs Robert Cutler (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Justin Whitcomb (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Fernando Perez Lagunas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Corwin Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Loss |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Connor Symons (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Caleb Jansen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Botchis (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Scott Hazen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lee Kimball (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Oren Yishai (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Fernando Mejia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs nathan ericksen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Shope (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Braden Wooldridge (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Steven Sweany (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Brian fischler (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Varun Nambikrishnan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wesley Eaton (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs John Kim (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Joseph Tang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Keyton Adams (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jakub Kulpinski (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33
Round 3: Win vs Jr . (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Bruner (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Fuzzy Delp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Braxton Palmer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dolgoon Batbold (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jack Sayer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hanno Guellicher (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Chester Stallings (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Zamora (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andy Valenuzela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wesley Robinson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs James Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Greget (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Alex Herzog (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Thomas Turnbull (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Eduardo mauricio Gonzalez abrego (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Alldredge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs DJ Sinibaldi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gen Shinohara (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs David Vargas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Steven Caraher (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Chang (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brian Gutierrez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Caleb Engen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Montes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Carlo Cuenca (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Watkins (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Win vs Joshua White (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs CLARK Moore (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Violet Dold (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Peyton Gage (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Win vs Nick Rutkowski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Whitcomb (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Alldredge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tanner Lee (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Gillespie (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Round 4: Loss vs Dalton Cameron (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David McCartney (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mason Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Terry (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Greg Baroni (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Blake Freeman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Carter Barton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Chang (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dylon Shiao (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Seren Roberson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John Kim (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Tang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tsunoda Shingo (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Greget (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Terrence Bell (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Pitcher (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wesley Robinson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Towne (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.