Calling: Las Vegas 2026 - Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster (CC)

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Lindley

dropped • 3-3-1

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs joey lau (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

5:95

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 6:94

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Watkins (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Ovaert (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Connor Leverton

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Jones (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ignacio Riego (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Gibson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zachery Hill

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

5:95

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 6:94

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luis Robles (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Jared Warden

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Bowar (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Hill (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joshua Campbell

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Campbell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	15%	Win	✗	0.83	0.86
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Jacob Wells

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 17:83

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mike Buttazzoni (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Spencer Astling

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

5:95

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nic Burger (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 6:94

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs DOUGLAS CHAGAS (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Armando Aguilar

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

5:95

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 6:94

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bernard Eng

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ignacio Lorenzo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.