Briar at Showdown: London 2026

Briar

64 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bartosz Ziemba

5th • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.41
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.65
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R10	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Matthias Verbeeck

5th • 7-3-0

60%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.47
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.22
R9	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Clément Maillet

14th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chris Karrandjas (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jack Warren (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lucas Sobral

21st • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Machi C (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.45
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.87
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Finlay Freir

27th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.8

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs cory macewan (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrik Koller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Guillermo Regueiro (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.45
R8	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.13
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Etienne BARIOULET

30th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Simon Denning (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None ()

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jan-Philipp Dreikorn (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 86:14

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mike Williams (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.10
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.59
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R9	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.27

Tsz Shing So

36th • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Jud (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Fredrik Bill (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.56
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Tigran Grigorian

40th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shelby Ward (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zak Mc Gowan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs George Douglas (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Danny Feliz (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.36
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dylan Thompson

41st • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Irvine (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lukasz Ziemba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ryan McVean (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Florian Koksch (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.49
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.18
R9	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Erika Forslöf

46th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Lackner (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Peter Stürmer (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.03
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.66
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Simon Denning

47th • 6-3-0

22%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.02
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.91
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.18
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Giani Gabriel Dinu

51st • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs THOMAS CORTICELLI (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christian Jelle (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.45
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Pierre Canali

54th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rhys Iddon (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Irvine (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs James Earle (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R8	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kyoshiro Takegahara

62nd • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gary Kelly (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

James Goode-Hamy

64th • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eloi Meens (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 86:14

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs George Jones (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.15
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

René Schep

66th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Josh Keys (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dan Tripp (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.52
R8	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Owen Howdon

72nd • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Turner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Fredrik Bill (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aidan Bates (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gary Kelly (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Danny Feliz (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.88
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Marc Bonnet

75th • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nico Stangel (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Pierre Grevet (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.88
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.52
R9	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Patryk Wasielewski

77th • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ivan Grimaldo (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Lukaschek (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aria Loog (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Aidan Bates (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.32
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.03
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.75
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bastian Henneberg

84th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Quentin Neves (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tom Lorente (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Mike Williams (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.25
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Jonathan DUMONT

85th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Cowan (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Paul Goodchild (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs George Douglas (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs George Turner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.91
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonas Benzarti

88th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gabe Sher (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jean-Philip Lohse (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.85
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

Alexander Heilling

89th • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs alessandro scarnato (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs George Turner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.04
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alan Bainbridge

90th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Patrik Weber (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Josh Keys (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs James Earle (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.00
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Joscha Amann

93rd • 4-4-1

78%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs alessandro scarnato (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Draw	✓	0.67	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Rafael Salsa

97th • 4-5-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonas Larsen (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.42
R7	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Ilya Polkovnichenko

101st • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Erika Forslöf (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs None ()

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Chevrinais (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.99
R8	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Muir

105th • 4-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christian Sal (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs James Earle (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Wassim Bouzazi (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ryan Jackson (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.15
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R8	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Carreira

108th • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christian Sal (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tobias Lee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonas Larsen (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Lorenzo Latino

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Fredrik Bill (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R7	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Phil Mead

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shai Edginton (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Sharpes (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.51
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Lackner

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthias Fund (Marlynn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jean-Philip Lohse (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dave Margetson (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.32
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Zach Evans

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Knapp (Pleiades) - Expected: 80:20

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Henri Laigo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R8	Silver Age	Aurora	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Benjamin Van donkelaar

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Louis Ades (Pleiades) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Simon Denning (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Jud (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Philip van Donselaar

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chad Heuschober (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Leonardo Poppa

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marnie Lamb (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pierre Grevet (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Florian Schmidt

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joel Rencen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 86:14

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs George-Daniel Tudose (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan McVean (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Matheo Franchot

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ella Brown (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Finn Baird (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Walter Heidelberger (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Bråss

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Siméon Gruel (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.51
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Rafał Liwerski

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Campagnoli (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rafael Durán (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tyhrone Bennett (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.93
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Lewis Pratt

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Rhyan Bromell

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Wilhelm Baars (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Ritter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.67
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Wolfgang Mahl

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Larsen (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fang	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.22
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Oliver Gehrig

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Shai Edginton (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mehmet Huseyin (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Paul Goodchild

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jared Wyce (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kieran Waters (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.90
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Theo Mussy

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Aidan Bates (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Shubert (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adam Cartwright (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Vlad Ciobotea

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Haill (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kano	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Srdja Stetic-Kozic

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pietro Gerletti (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Gómez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Asger Thomsen Brem

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Edward Catling (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Lucas Dutailly

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Wolfgang Mahl (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Campagnoli

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs THOMAS CORTICELLI (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aron Trausti (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrik Weber

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

David Dyson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marc Lanigra (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Edward Catling

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Henri Laigo

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Peter Stürmer (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Max Escaler

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Clayton Gowen (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Stefano Berian

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Will Melyn (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Christian Sal

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adam Haill

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Eloi Meens (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Vlad Ciobotea (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christian Bach

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dan Tripp (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Wassim Bouzazi (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-

David Gómez

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marcus Archer

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Enigma) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Paul Crame

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jaka Burnik (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Zak Mc Gowan

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.