Showdown: London 2026 - Arakni, Web of Deceit (SAGE)

Arakni, Web of Deceit

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Wassim Bouzazi

117th • 3-6-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Erik Skinstad (Fai) - Expected: 15:85

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christian Bach (Briar) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tiago Paulo (Fai) - Expected: 15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 16:84

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	15%	Win	✗	0.84	0.59
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.16
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ville Teräväinen

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Cohea (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Austin De Young (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jack Warren (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 16:84

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.93
R6	Silver Age	Briar	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	15%	Win	✗	0.84	2.33
R8	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jan-Philipp Dreikorn

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Massimo Castelli (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Fai) - Expected: 15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 16:84

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Fai	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R3	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-

Joel Rencen

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 16:84

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Shaheen Khoursheed (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.