Vynnset at Showdown: London 2026

Vynnset

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nicolas Mazeyrac

112th • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Potter (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 19:81

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jared Wyce (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tobias Lee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Wassim Bouzazi (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.68
R9	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Darius Zacharakis

114th • 3-5-1

33%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tom Lorente (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Spencer Baker (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Krzysztof Nowek

119th • 3-6-0

56%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Malyk Höfle (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Parry (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Larsen (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs None ()

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.46
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

Yassine Echafai Tripiana

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ben Potter (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aron Trausti (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jaber Hye (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.75
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.97
R7	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

George-Daniel Tudose

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Spencer Baker (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.52
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Hamish Chisholm Brown

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.34
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.52
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Melvin Valderrey

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs George-Daniel Tudose (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jack Green (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ben Potter (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Maximilian Klein

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stefano Berian (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.58
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Aaron Nichols

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Lovelace

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.