Vynnset at Showdown: London 2026

Vynnset

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nicolas Mazeyrac

112th • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Potter (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jared Wyce (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 27:73

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tobias Lee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 62:38

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Wassim Bouzazi (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.60
R9	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Darius Zacharakis

114th • 3-5-1

44%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tom Lorente (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Spencer Baker (Oldhim) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Krzysztof Nowek

119th • 3-6-0

56%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 27:73

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Malyk Höfle (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Parry (Oldhim) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Larsen (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs None ()

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Yassine Echafai Tripiana

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ben Potter (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aron Trausti (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 62:38

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jaber Hye (Fai) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 43:57

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.54
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R7	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

George-Daniel Tudose

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Spencer Baker (Oldhim) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 43:57

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Hamish Chisholm Brown

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.37
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Melvin Valderrey

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs George-Daniel Tudose (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jack Green (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ben Potter (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Maximilian Klein

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stefano Berian (Briar) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Aaron Nichols

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Lovelace

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.