Showdown: London 2026 - Rhinar (SAGE)

Rhinar

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

James Clark

24th • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hugo Platret (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Henri Laigo (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs George Jones (Dorinthea) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Milan Pěkný (Enigma) - Expected: 71:29

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 31:69

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.94
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.32
R7	Silver Age	Fai	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.32
R9	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Emad Kashy

45th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Walter Heidelberger (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.75
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.99
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.75
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Robert Mueller

60th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Björn Kaminski (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Paul Goodchild (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Kayo) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R7	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.52
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Eugene C

92nd • 4-5-0

22%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paul Goodchild (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs George Turner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 31:69

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Sommer (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs George Jones (Dorinthea) - Expected: 31:69

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Fai	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.76
R5	Silver Age	Fai	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Jyry Soinio

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dave Margetson (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Fai) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.70
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.47
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Tibor Madaras

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Migliavacca (Oldhim) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.99
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Iaali

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Nichols (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.11
R4	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hugo Platret

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Fai) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Adam Harbinson

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.