Showdown: London 2026 - Kayo (SAGE)

Kayo

16 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Fabian Schunn

3rd • 10-1-0

73%

Meta

+4.2

Perf

5.3

Surp

5.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Italo Molina (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.54
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.42
R8	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.99
R10	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.11
R11	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty

3rd • 9-2-0

64%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Louis Guillot (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.79
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.77
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R10	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.60
R11	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Rasmus Møller

29th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Marnie Lamb (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 85:15

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.19
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.33
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Dayvid Kayal

52nd • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Pierre Grevet (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jaber Hye (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.95
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Jaka Burnik

65th • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paul Crame (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pietro Gerletti (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aron Trausti (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Guillermo Regueiro (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R4	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.25
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Sebastian Christofzik

95th • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

5.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robert Robinson (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Danny Feliz (Olympia) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.90
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.35
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Samuel Curnow

dropped • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Sharpes (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Trubshaw (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Muir (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Siméon Gruel (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Wassim Bouzazi (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Greg Nichols

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tobias Lee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs George Jones (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jeppe Madsen (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs James Earle (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R6	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Raj Parikh

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Eloi Meens (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jaber Hye (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Sharpes (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Maciej Szawica

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Michael Manferdini

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Thang (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Fredrik Bill (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs alessandro scarnato (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aidan Bates (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

James Flynn

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Vincent Fasquel (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Buntrock (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tobias Lee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Frazer Eastman

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Aron Trausti (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Josh Keys (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Finn Baird (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Noah Beygelman

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Oliver Kuhrt

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Andrew Trubshaw

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.