Showdown: London 2026 - Kayo, Strong-arm (SAGE)

Kayo, Strong-arm

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Marnie Lamb

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chris Willis (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kieran Waters (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 29:71

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dave Margetson

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Quentin Neves (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ben Potter (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Lackner (Briar) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Briar	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Laurens Overgaauw

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mohammad Rafiq (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Austin De Young (Oldhim) - Expected: 29:71

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thibaud ROMANI (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Gary White

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jean-Philip Lohse (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pierre Grevet (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 29:71

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mohammad Rafiq (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nico Stangel

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Thore Ladicke

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 29:71

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.