Oldhim at Showdown: London 2026

Oldhim

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mário Abrantes

16th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Vaux (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs George-Daniel Tudose (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.73
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.40

Riccardo Bonfiglioli

22nd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

10:90

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.27
R7	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.36
R9	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Win	✗	0.88	3.06

Louis Guillot

49th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

95:5

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Gary Kelly (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.08
R8	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R9	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Geoffroy Massard

91st • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Ritter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

5:95

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrik Weber (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

5:95

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Cartwright (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

95:5

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Chevrinais (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jonas Larsen (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.10
R9	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Spencer Baker

113th • 3-5-1

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs George-Daniel Tudose (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R6	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-
R9	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

YeeHo Chow

dropped • 4-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Lackner (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Marnie Lamb (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Julian Flury

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyhrone Bennett (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Lewis Miller

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ruben Exposito (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Tyhrone Bennett

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

95:5

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs James Earle (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

5:95

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.03
R3	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.34
R7	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Axel Gay

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

95:5

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Lukaschek (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Pietro Gerletti (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Bruno Cracco

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Austin De Young (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

95:5

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Lukaschek (Lexi) - Expected: 93:7

5:95

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Danny Feliz (Olympia) - Expected: 7:93

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Parry (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dalton Harmsen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.72
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Daniel Mckinlay

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31

5:95

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.34
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Austin De Young

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marko Martic (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 69:31

5:95

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-

Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ruben Exposito (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Shubert (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ella Brown (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tyhrone Bennett (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Kruft

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alexej Vollmer (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs None ()

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Samuel Parry

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marko Martic (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lorenzo Tarateta

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Clayton Gowen (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Wolfgang Mahl (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Vulpe Razvan

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Hopkins (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Andrea Migliavacca

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Machi C

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

5:95

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mehmet Huseyin (Enigma) - Expected: 5:95

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Marko Antonic

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Brandon Barefoot

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.