Showdown: London 2026 - Oldhim (SAGE)

Oldhim

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mário Abrantes

16th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Vaux (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs George-Daniel Tudose (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.85
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.31

Riccardo Bonfiglioli

22nd • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.8

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.21
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.28
R9	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	2.92

Louis Guillot

49th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

100:0

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Gary Kelly (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (6.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R9	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-

Geoffroy Massard

91st • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Ritter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

0:100

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrik Weber (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

0:100

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Cartwright (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Chevrinais (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jonas Larsen (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.23
R9	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Spencer Baker

113th • 3-5-1

56%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs George-Daniel Tudose (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R6	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Draw	✓	0.59	-
R9	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

YeeHo Chow

dropped • 4-2-1

71%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Lackner (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Marnie Lamb (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Julian Flury

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyhrone Bennett (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 17:83

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Lewis Miller

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ruben Exposito (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.59
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.22
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Tyhrone Bennett

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs James Earle (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.27
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Axel Gay

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Lukaschek (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 33:67

100:0

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Pietro Gerletti (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Bruno Cracco

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Austin De Young (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Lukaschek (Lexi) - Expected: 83:17

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Danny Feliz (Olympia) - Expected: 16:84

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Parry (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dalton Harmsen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Daniel Mckinlay

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29

0:100

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.24
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.26
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Austin De Young

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marko Martic (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: 71:29

0:100

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ruben Exposito (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Shubert (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ella Brown (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tyhrone Bennett (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.87
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Kruft

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alexej Vollmer (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs None ()

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Samuel Parry

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marko Martic (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Vynnset) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.57
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lorenzo Tarateta

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Clayton Gowen (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Wolfgang Mahl (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Vulpe Razvan

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Hopkins (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Andrea Migliavacca

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Machi C

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

0:100

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mehmet Huseyin (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Marko Antonic

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Brandon Barefoot

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.