Showdown: London 2026 - Kano (SAGE)

Kano

16 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Clements

1st • 11-1-0

67%

Meta

+4.6

Perf

5.7

Surp

6.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Steele ()

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Florian Koksch (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Guillermo Regueiro (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.10
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R10	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.02
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.07
R12	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Arthur Trehet

2nd • 10-2-0

75%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

5.4

Surp

5.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Evans (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rafael Durán (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alex Chițu (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vlad Ciobotea (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.09
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.62
R8	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.70
R10	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.77
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.07
R12	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Winning

11th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cody Hodkinson (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tov Hanssen (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.33
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.16
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.01
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Bogdan-Andrei Oros

20th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Shelby Ward (Dash) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Simon Denning (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.28
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.16
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.50

David Watt

26th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Guillermo Regueiro (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dalton Harmsen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Louis Guillot (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.16
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.18
R9	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Quest Pittman

32nd • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Jackson (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs João Gonçalo Silva (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.33
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.89
R8	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-

Alexander Hempelmann

34th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs George Turner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Martin Holík

42nd • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Enigma) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Lexi) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Spencer Baker (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tyhrone Bennett (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

90:10

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.09
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.33
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.16
R8	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.16
R9	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Sebastian Spicher

50th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Earle (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.89
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

Piotr Siewko

67th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Parry (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Steven O'Reilly (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

George Douglas

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Finn Baird (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ernst Füllemann (Lexi) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bjarki már Ingólfsson (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Alejandro López Lao

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Louis Ades (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Simon Denning (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Ruben Exposito

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs George Turner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs THOMAS CORTICELLI (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mike Williams (Enigma) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.81

Andrei Sebastian Suciu

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Shubert (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Guillermo Regueiro (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Rhys Iddon

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Quentin Neves (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.