Valda Brightaxe at Showdown: London 2026

Valda Brightaxe

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tim Sofsky

48th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Migliavacca (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lukasz Ziemba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emma Rumsey (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Simon Denning (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.32
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.78
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alan Williams

76th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Trubshaw (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Baker (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Earle (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Tim Edwards

100th • 4-5-0

56%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Will Melyn (Dorinthea) - Expected: 18:82

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Simon Denning (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Dalton Harmsen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.19
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.27
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.81
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Florian Koksch

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Walter Heidelberger (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.82
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Cato DIrdal

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tom Lorente (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aidan Bates (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Aidan Bates

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Theo Mussy (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cato DIrdal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Manferdini (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Stephane GANGLOFF

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 18:82

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Athena Vogel (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.16
R6	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Robert Robinson

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thibaud ROMANI (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ernst Füllemann (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Thomas Neseyif-Deakin

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.