Enigma at Showdown: London 2026

Enigma

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Noah Clark

5th • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

5.0

Surp

4.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.27
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Simon MacDonald

10th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Björn Kaminski (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.70
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.47
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.23
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ernesto Silva

19th • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.6

Surp

5.5

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emma Rumsey (Fai) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mike Williams (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Guillermo Regueiro (Dorinthea) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R7	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.85
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Jorgen Fleussu

78th • 5-3-1

44%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mike Williams (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jaka Burnik (Kayo) - Expected: 20:80

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs James Earle (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.88
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R9	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lisa-Marie Schulte

70th • 5-4-0

33%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Fai) - Expected: 19:81

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

95:5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Austin De Young (Oldhim) - Expected: 95:5

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs George Turner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Lackner (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: 20:80

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	95%	Win	✓	0.05	0.04
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.72
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.23
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Pierre Grevet

96th • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Azalea) - Expected: 60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 20:80

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Mike Williams

98th • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Jud (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Chevrinais (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Adam Haigh

121st • 2-6-1

78%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 19:81

95:5

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 95:5

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jean-Philip Lohse (Fai) - Expected: 19:81

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Tom Lorente (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Krzysztof Nowek (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	95%	Win	✓	0.05	0.02
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ethan Cheyney

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Fai) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nico Stangel (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

95:5

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 95:5

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Will Melyn (Dorinthea) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.34
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	95%	Win	✓	0.05	0.04
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Milan Pěkný

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patryk Rokicki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.55
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Adam Cartwright

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Bayford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Theo Mussy (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

95:5

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 95:5

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Siméon Gruel (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	95%	Win	✓	0.05	0.06
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jeppe Madsen

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	20%	Win	✗	0.80	2.32

Ralph Schlauri

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 75:25

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan McVean (Fai) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.63
R3	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.43
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Athena Vogel

dropped • 2-2-1

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 19:81

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Aaron Heimbeck

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Fai) - Expected: 19:81

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 75:25

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Walter Heidelberger (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dalton Harmsen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pietro Gerletti (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

alessandro scarnato

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Manferdini (Kayo) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Stürmer (Fai) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.90
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Mehmet Huseyin

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

95:5

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Machi C (Oldhim) - Expected: 95:5

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Lukaschek (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	95%	Win	✓	0.05	0.01
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ben Potter

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dave Margetson (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Robbert Valkeneers

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Archer (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Fai) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Adam Sarrington

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dorinthea) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.