Showdown: London 2026 - Enigma (SAGE)

Enigma

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Noah Clark

5th • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.7

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.98
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Simon MacDonald

10th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Björn Kaminski (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.95
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ernesto Silva

19th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

5.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emma Rumsey (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mike Williams (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Guillermo Regueiro (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R7	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.91
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Jorgen Fleussu

78th • 5-3-1

44%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mike Williams (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jaka Burnik (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs James Earle (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.68
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lisa-Marie Schulte

70th • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Austin De Young (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs George Turner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Lackner (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.98
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.02
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.95
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Pierre Grevet

96th • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.65
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Mike Williams

98th • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Jud (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Chevrinais (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Adam Haigh

121st • 2-6-1

56%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Vynnset) - Expected: 30:70

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

100:0

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jean-Philip Lohse (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: 65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Tom Lorente (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Krzysztof Nowek (Vynnset) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.01
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.49
R8	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Ethan Cheyney

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Fai) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nico Stangel (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

100:0

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Will Melyn (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.82	0.35
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.02
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Milan Pěkný

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patryk Rokicki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.74
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Adam Cartwright

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Bayford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Theo Mussy (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Siméon Gruel (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.03
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.25

Jeppe Madsen

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Win	✗	0.77	2.14

Ralph Schlauri

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan McVean (Fai) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.48
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Athena Vogel

dropped • 2-2-1

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Aaron Heimbeck

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Walter Heidelberger (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dalton Harmsen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pietro Gerletti (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

alessandro scarnato

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Manferdini (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Stürmer (Fai) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.97
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Mehmet Huseyin

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

100:0

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Machi C (Oldhim) - Expected: 98:2

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Lukaschek (Lexi) - Expected: 53:47

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.02	0.01
R2	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ben Potter

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dave Margetson (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.87
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Robbert Valkeneers

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Archer (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Adam Sarrington

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.