Showdown: London 2026 - Azalea (SAGE)

Azalea

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kai Martin

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Aria Loog (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tobias Lee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthias Fund (Marlynn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Aria Loog

dropped • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kai Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 36:64

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Jackson (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Vincent Fasquel

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre Grevet (Enigma) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.71
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Patrick Cohea

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs THOMAS CORTICELLI (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shai Edginton

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Yehor Zhukovskyi

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.