Showdown: London 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

41 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lars Seebacher

5th • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs João Gonçalo Silva (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs George Turner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.37
R8	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.68
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Tov Hanssen

13th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ugo Troenli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs TCGTed Grabow (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jaber Hye (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Fredrik Bill (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.90
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Donovan van Beek

18th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Etienne BARIOULET (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Wolfgang Mahl (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Louis Guillot (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Francesco Giorgio

23rd • 7-2-0

33%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs George Jones (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florian Koksch (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gary Kelly (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.00
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.77
R9	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.49

Mirko Dolce

25th • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.2

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Vlad Ciobotea (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Manferdini (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Sharpes (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs George Jones (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.64
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.33
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Giulio Monaco

35th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Moore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs George Douglas (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kevin Sharpes (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.66
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.59
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.68
R9	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tom Ward

58th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Red Itärinne (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Georg Sossnowetz (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.58
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.34

Christopher Chalk

69th • 5-4-0

33%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robert Robinson (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Vaux (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs George Douglas (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.89
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Tomasz Stanicki

83rd • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Curry (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Pierre Grevet (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.29

Stevie Van Overtveldt

87th • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Barefoot (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jan-Philipp Dreikorn (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 85:15

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christian Jelle (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.33
R9	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.49

Jonas Larsen

103rd • 4-5-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Wolfgang Mahl (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Jackson (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrea Shubert (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.04
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.33
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jean-Philip Lohse

104th • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gary White (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gabe Sher (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Lackner (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Jackson (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

90:10

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.19
R7	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.14
R8	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.16
R9	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Ryan McVean

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jack Green (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Curry (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gary Kelly (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.76
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.28
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Bernardo Cardoso

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hugo Platret (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tiago Paulo (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Jaber Hye

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dalton Harmsen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.45
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Nino Chimenti

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kai Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

cory macewan

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Fredrik Bill (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patryk Rokicki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Lukaschek (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Chevrinais (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.89
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrea Mengucci

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Dyson (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ruben Exposito (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.90
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.70
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Emma Rumsey

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tom Evans (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Malyk Höfle

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tobias Lee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.34

Alexej Vollmer

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Walter Heidelberger (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kieran Waters (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Iyslander) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Guilherme Coutinho

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Athena Vogel (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Tiago Paulo

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Will Melyn (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs João Gonçalo Silva (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Wassim Bouzazi (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dan Tripp

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christian Bach (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bjarki már Ingólfsson (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gary Kelly (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Finn Baird

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs George Douglas (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matheo Franchot (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Frazer Eastman (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.08
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Matthew Brown

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Dyson (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.00
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Ben Emmanuel

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stefano Berian (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tom Lorente (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cody Hodkinson

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ella Brown

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matheo Franchot (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Stürmer (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Erik Skinstad

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Wassim Bouzazi (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Vlad Ciobotea (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Peter Stürmer

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Henri Laigo (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ella Brown (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs alessandro scarnato (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-

Bjarki már Ingólfsson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Chevrinais (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dan Tripp (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs George Douglas (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Daniel Curry

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Kebell ()

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan McVean (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Italo Molina

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Chițu (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Quentin Neves

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dave Margetson (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rhys Iddon (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Red Itärinne

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tom Evans

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Emma Rumsey (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs THOMAS CORTICELLI (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Buntrock

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Vaux (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12, favorite upset

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs James Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Loss	✓	0.88	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Mikael Lundberg

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Red Itärinne (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Durán (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Kevin Thang

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Manferdini (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Glenn Rosario II (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Brian Atchley

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gary Kelly (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.