Showdown: London 2026 - Riptide (SAGE)

Riptide

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gary Kelly

68th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brian Atchley (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dan Tripp (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan McVean (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 14:86

0:100

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Oldhim) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.64
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Thibaud ROMANI

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robert Robinson (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Damien Bouché (Iyslander) - Expected: 14:86

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rafael Durán (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 9:91

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.61

Pietro Gerletti

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jaka Burnik (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

0:100

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 0:100

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chris Karrandjas

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs None ()

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Björn Kaminski (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.