Bravo, Flattering Showman at Showdown: London 2026

Bravo, Flattering Showman

34 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jas Tin Lim

28th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Edward Catling (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan McVean (Fai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Simon Denning (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.59
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.69
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.79
R9	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Pauli Viimaranta

33rd • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Durán (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.45
R5	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.96
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Lancelot Errico

53rd • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kano) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aria Loog (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Sharpes (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Jud (Lexi) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jack Warren (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.27
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.38
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.72

Dimitrios Stergiou

71st • 5-3-1

56%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zak Mc Gowan (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs YeeHo Chow (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Massimo Castelli (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Win	✗	0.85	1.22
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.79
R9	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Dalton Harmsen

86th • 5-3-1

56%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jaber Hye (Fai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

90:10

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 89:11

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.86
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	90%	Draw	✓	0.89	-
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Jose Maria Mellado Becerra

73rd • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Lovelace (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.79
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

André Kofmel

116th • 3-6-0

56%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Finlay McBay (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Kano) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Axel Gay (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pierre Grevet (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tobias Lee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs George Turner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.79
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Daniel Potter

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrik Weber (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jaber Hye (Fai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Red Itärinne (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Sharpes (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Maxime Forest

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Wilson (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aidan Bates (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Emma Rumsey (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Win	✗	0.85	0.39
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Ian Porter

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mohammad Rafiq (Lexi) - Expected: 71:29

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Pierre Grevet (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.74
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tom Barnaby-Pass

dropped • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Sharpes (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daja Todesco (Florian) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Damien Bouché (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Antonio Briola

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Cowan (Florian) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Will Melyn (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Athena Vogel (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.10
R6	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Daniel Folch

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthias Fund (Marlynn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Fai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mike Williams (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Josh Keys (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Florian Bouteyron

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kai Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jean-Philip Lohse (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Lukasz Ziemba

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs James Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dave Margetson (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Rafael Durán

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thibaud ROMANI (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adrian Lee (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Víctor Sánchez Parrondo

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Wilhelm Baars (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adam Haigh (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Damien Bouché (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.88
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.92
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Miw Valle

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Trubshaw (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs George Jones (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dalton Harmsen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R5	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alfie Thomasson

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Larsen (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Edward Bayford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jaka Burnik (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

David Moore

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Lovelace (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Michael Feng

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Athena Vogel (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Wassim Bouzazi (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Milan Pěkný (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.71
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Alexander Ritter

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ugo Troenli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Josh Keys (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lewis Pratt (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Mueller (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Andrea Shubert

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Theo Mussy (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kai "Käpt'n" Schmidt (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonas Larsen (Fai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Edward Bayford

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs None ()

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Jelle (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adam Cartwright (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kin Bong Ernie Wong

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Edward Catling (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Miller (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Patrik Koller

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Steven O'Reilly

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Siméon Gruel (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Guillermo Regueiro (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Win	✗	0.85	1.38
R3	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Wojtek Klimczyk

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Milan Pěkný (Enigma) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Kieran Waters

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Damien Bouché (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marnie Lamb (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Goodchild (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Matthew Vaux

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Buntrock (Fai) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Andrei Joghiu

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Vynnset) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marko Antonic (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aidan Bates (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.77
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Massimo Castelli

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jan-Philipp Dreikorn (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Hopkins (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chad Heuschober

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Ades (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.